Market Crash Drill
Every investor plans to "buy the dip" — until the dip is their own money. This drill simulates a 30% market crash in dollars, walks you through the decisions you'd face, and turns your calm-day answers into a written crash plan for the real thing.
Your starting point
What your choices would have cost
Same crash, three investors, starting with :
Assumes the "buy more" investor added 10% of the starting portfolio at the bottom of the crash and otherwise held. Selling assumes moving to cash and missing the entire recovery.
My Market Crash Plan
Review this plan once a year, and again the next time the market falls 20%. Update the numbers, not the principles.
Assumptions & sources
- The drill's crash (−30%, then a further leg to about −37%, flat months, then recovery to +8% above the start) is a fictional scenario built from the shape of real bear markets — it is not a forecast.
- Historical notes: 2007–09, the S&P 500 fell about 57% from its October 2007 high to its March 2009 low and did not fully recover until spring 2013. In 2020 it fell about 34% in 33 days and recovered to a new high within about five months. In 2022 it fell about 25% and reached a new high in January 2024. The 2000–02 decline was about 49% and took roughly seven years to recover.
- On average, U.S. bear markets have lasted roughly 14 months from peak to bottom. Every U.S. bear market on record has eventually recovered to a new high — that describes the past, not the future.
- Outcome math is simple arithmetic on the scenario's multipliers. It ignores dividends, taxes, inflation, and fees.
Go Deeper with the Book
The Market Crash Drill is just the start. Investing Made Simple by Kimani Upshur, M.Ed. takes you deeper — risk, diversification, and staying invested when it matters most.