Decision Tree Simulator
Sketch your choices, the chance events under each, and the payoffs — then let expected-value math point to the strongest path. Probabilities that don't add to 100% are normalized for you.
Educational tool only. Expected values describe averages over many repeats, not guarantees for a single decision — and payoffs here are your estimates, not predictions.
Your choices (branches)
Each choice gets its own chance outcomes: a name, your estimated probability (%), and the payoff in dollars (negative for losses). One outcome at 100% = a certain payoff.
Results
Gut check
Expected value is the long-run average. Does the recommended path feel right for one real decision?
Next steps
Go Deeper
For more tools on decisions, risk, and strategy, browse the Made Simple book collection, by Kimani Upshur, M.Ed.